HS2 Business Case

The DfT's HS2 command paper contains the published business case for HS2.
 
HS2AA publish a paper on the six myths ('Justifying HS2: a case of myths not reality') based on a letter sent to Philip Hammond on 24 August 2010. 
The 6 myths are:
  • HS2 is 'green' - it's part of the low carbon economy
  • HS2 is transformational and will deliver wider economic regional benefits
  • HS2 is a sound investment, delivering a net benefit ratio of 2.7
  • Only HS2, ie a new railway, can solve the rail capacity problem
  • HS2 will greatly reduce domestic air travel
  • The UK lacks a fast national railway network

Read the latest version of the full paper and the two page summary to see the myths exposed.

The Convention at Stoneleigh on 19 February 2011 HS2AA gave a presentation on 'why the business case is flawed'. look at the slides her (there are notes that provide an explanation too)

Our October press release after HS2 survives the spending cuts also gives the highlights

The Parliamentary Gazette contains a double page spread on Myths versus Reality and went to every delegate at each of the party conferences

Read the DfT reply to our 24 August letter to Hammond.  We asked for a dialogue on the issues but have been advised to input these points into the consultation process next year.  We have raised this with Hammond himself and been told they expect to be able to rebut our arguements. This bears none of the hallmarks of open minded consultation. 

See the support we have received from the Taxpayers Alliance on 24 September who say 'HS2 consultation will be pointless if the government doesn't listen'. We agree!

HS2 AA publish the paper ('A case for Alternatives to HS2') presented at BCC's Stakeholder Summit on 18 June 2010.
The paper questions:
  • the demand estimates
  • the reality of some of the claimed benefits
  • the value of the time saved by faster journeys
  • how risk is handled

It explains how additional capacity (eg longer trains) could be created cost effectively.  Because speed is not green, other ways should be pursued to achieve HSR (at least 125mph) on existing lines (eg Pendolinos travelling at 140mph).

See the paper (with presentation attached).  See what DfT/HS2 Ltd had to say when we met with them on 29 June. And what The Taxpayers Alliance say about it .... 'the purported benefits are an illusion'. 

See what Christian Wolmar has to say in Rail (September issue) where he describes the work 'as a very thorough piece of research' in his article that asks 'Why the arguements against HS2 are stacking up'. Jim Steer has now responded and HS2AA will be given the right to reply

And the October issue of Modern Railways where Chris Stokes a leading railwayman asks in a 7-page article if HS2 is really needed.  This file is 10MB.

At the Lobby day in Parliament on 25 October Chris Stokes presents his assessment of the business case, providing evidence for why he believes 'the case is not yet proven, and marginal at best'. His presentation is here   

We complete a detailed review of the Business case in December 2010. Read the latest 4 Feb 2011 update of our full report here, with a one page summary

'HS2 Action Alliance in collaberation with the Chiltern Society, are asking the key question 'is the economic case for HS2 sound'?  The short paper raises some of the issues that require consideration under four themes: demand; benefits; costs; and alternatives.

Transformational benefits

HS2AA summarise the position (from experts and what HS2 Ltd/DfT say) on the wider economic impacts and so called 'transformational benefits'.  The review  shows recent government claims are without evidence

Demand

Paper by David Metz, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, says demand for travel has saturated, with travel per person unchanged since 1995. 
This study sits uncomfortably with DfT's position of substantial demand increases that are necessary for a case for HS2.

Heathrow

Lord Mawhinney publishes his findings on whether HS2 should link with Heathrow. He finds no case for linking to Heathrow now, but keeps alive the hope to run to Heathrow (via a link) when HS2 extends north of Birmingham. This makes adopting the alternative to HS2 of improving WCML less attractive to those who still see the case for Heathrow. Read our summary of the implications

Alternative HSR Schemes

New Study says HSR could cost £6bn if it avoids city centres, limits stations and has a different funding vehicle. See 2 June article and report